AFC Betting Preview

Michael Norbury looks at the odds of every division in the AFC and where you might be able to find an edge

AFC East

Josh Allen's Second Season Review

Buffalo Bills – 5/4 (Bet365)

Projection – 1st

2019 saw the Bills form a run to the playoffs built around a solid defense, Buffalo’s 16.2 points per game conceded in the regular season ranked 2nd in the NFL and they should continue to excel in this department.  Offensively there is one big question hanging over Sean McDermott’s men, is Josh Allen the man to take them forward under centre? Allen has potential to be a genuine dual-threat Quarterback but failed to build on his 2018 rookie season and all eyes will be on the former first-round draft pick. Buffalo acquired Stefon Diggs in the off-season to add a quality weapon to an already above average receiving corps in Cole Beasley and John Brown. Running Back Devin Singletary impressed in his rookie campaign and is expected to build on that in the coming season. 2020 could finally be the year for Buffalo to break New England’s stranglehold on the division and the 5/4 looks fair enough. read more

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The Importance of the Backup Quarterback

Ross Waddell (@RossWaddell92) takes a look at the importance of the back up quarterback position following Andy Dalton’s signing with the Cowboys.

I woke up early on Sunday morning to the news that Dallas had signed former Bengals QB, Andy Dalton to a one year deal worth up to $7m. Instantly, I read a number of takes ranging from this being another excellent move in a promising offseason to this move indicating a reluctant admission that the Cowboys may need to move on from current starter Dak Prescott should be be unwilling to sign a long term extension with America’s Team. read more

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First and Ten Podcast Network Launch – Our Biggest Ever Giveaway!

To celebrate the launch of the First and Ten Podcast Network we are doing our biggest ever giveaway with an incredible 10 prizes up for grabs.

You can find all the podcasts on our brand new podcast – Channel 12. Please head over to wherever you usually listen to podcasts and subscribe to receive all the latest episodes from our brand new shows.

There are various ways to enter. You can get an entry for each of them that you do.

TWITTER

Follow us @FirstAndTen_ and retweet this tweet: https://twitter.com/FirstAndTen_/status/1176503422994046976

Get a bonus entry into the draw for every person you tag in the replies to the post (maximum of 10)

FACEBOOK

Like our page here and share this post

Get a bonus entry into the draw for every person you tag in the replies to the post (maximum of 10)

APPLE PODCASTS

Subscribe to Channel 12 here

Give us a review and a rating (five star if you want)

Post a screenshot of any of those three things in the replies to the above posts on Facebook and Twitter. So do all three and get another three entries.

TWITTER AND FACEBOOK read more

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First and Ten Tips of the Week

A little late this week but here they are.

Dave is looking to remain unbeaten after six wins to start the season while Ross is still looking to get his first win.

We also have our tip from Touchdown Tips.

He has gone for a double of Lions +4 and the Patriots -3.5.

Ross has plumped for a nice little treble. Chargers, Browns and Patriots all to win straight up. £10 returns £60.39.

Dave hasn’t also picked in the London game. He has picked the Chargers, Rams and Colts. £10 on that returns £21.34.

Good luck everyone.

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First and Ten Tips of the Week: Dave and Ross are both backing the Chiefs

Week five is upon us and we once again have our picks of the week in association with Touchdown Tips.

You can find episode four of our brand new podcast here. Check it out, give us a review and you can win prizes. 

Another win for Dave in week four saw him continue his perfect start.

Ross on the other hand is searching for win number one.

Year to date:

Dave +£89.50

Ross -£40

The Touchdown Tips pick of the week is over 50.5 points in the Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions.

Ross has gone for a treble. The Rams -7.5, Chiefs moneyline and Falcons +3. A £10 bet on this would return £66.70.

Dave, in agreement with Ross is going for the Chiefs moneyline along with the Panthers moneyline. A £10 bet returns £22.43.

Tune into the podcast to hear how we get on and to find out next week’s picks.

 

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NFL Lack of Power Rankings – The Race for the Number One Pick in the 2019 Draft: A New Number One!

The race for the number one pick in the draft took a big turn last week with two of the biggest upsets we will see all year.

First the (now former) number one Buffalo Bills took down the Vikings and then Matt Patricia’s Lions got the better of the Patriots.

The quest for 0-16 is not done for the season though with the Cardinals, Raiders and Texans all still in with a chance of matching last season’s Bills.

10 – Tennessee Titans (10)

Two wins already for the Titans means it may be a little harsh for them to be on here. However, having a starting quarterback who can’t even thrown the ball because he doesn’t have feeling in his hands is not a recipe for success.

Somehow they beat the Jaguars last week but until Marcus Mariota can get healthy, they don’t have much chance of success.

9 – Dallas Cowboys (9)

Is the jury even still out on Dak Prescott or are we past that? He was a genuine MVP candidate not too long ago but now the team is on his shoulders, he has shown he isn’t up to it.

Until the Cowboys can put talent around Prescott, Dallas are going to struggle. A top 10 pick in the draft could help…

8 – New York Giants (5)

A win hurt their chances of the top pick in the draft but don’t expect too many more to follow.

Eli Manning has struggled once again and if the Giants can sneak into the top five, they could make up for the mistake of the last draft and take their quarterback of the future.

7 – Detroit Lions (4)

A fantastic win on Sunday night over the Patriots as Matt Patricia got one over on his old boss.

Perhaps things have turned around in Detroit but until we see it, the Lions will stay on this list.

6 – Houston Texans (8)

Is Bill O’Brien the favourite to be the first coach fired?

There is a lot of talent in Houston – on both sides of the ball – but they just look terrible.

How can a team with the likes of J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins be winless through three weeks?

5 – Cleveland Browns (3)

I can be quite snarky, I admit it, but I was genuinely so happy for the Cleveland fans. They celebrated it like a Super Bowl and I honestly can’t blame them.

This is a big week though for Baker Mayfield and the rest of the Browns. They need to back up that win with another against a poor Raiders team.

They may well be picking near the top of the draft again next season, but that could well be the last time for a while. This team finally has some hope.

4 – San Francisco 49ers (-) read more

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Le’Veon Bell Trade: Likely landing spots for Pittsburgh Steelers star running back

It was reported by Adam Schefter yesterday that the Steelers were exploring the possibility of trading Le’Veon Bell.

The star running back is still holding out after the two parties failed to come to an agreement over a long-term deal.

Bell was franchise tagged by the team and with concerns over his usage and it’s effect on his future earnings, he has held out.

When a player like Bell becomes available, there will be plenty of teams interested. What it will take to get him is yet to be seen but it would probably take a third round pick at a minimum. That is the compensatory pick the Steelers would be likely to get if he left as a free agent – albeit in 2020.

There are a few teams in the league that could afford him right now, and give him the big deal that he would want.

Indianapolis Colts

No team has more cap room right now, or as much projected cap room in 2019.

The Colts could easily afford the deal and could also frontload it to make the deal more team-friendly moving forward.

They have failed to really give Andrew Luck the tools to succeed in Indy and the addition of Bell could help take the Colts to the next level.

While the team would still have plenty of other holes to fill, particularly on defence, a Luck, Bell, Hilton trio would be as good as there is in the league.

Add him now and the Colts suddenly become a very interesting team in an AFC with perhaps just one team in the Chiefs really looking like contenders over the opening three weeks.

San Francisco 49ers

Like the Colts they have the cap space to take on Bell. Even after handing Jerrick McKinnon a large contract, the prospect of Bell may be too hard to pass up.

Thay McKinnon deal saw a lot of the money being paid this year. Even after suffering a season ending injury McKinnon was paid over $10m for the season meaning the rest of his contract is relatively cheap.

Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a season ending injury and it could make the deal less likely. The team’s chances of a Super Bowl this season may have gone with that injury and the team may choose to stcik with what they have and build for 2019.

Like the Colts, there isn’t a lot of talent around the quarterback and Bell could go a long way to solving that.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have emerged as one of the favourites to sign Bell. Just as they were for Khalil Mack when he left the Raiders.

While Aaron Rodgers is not old, the clock is ticking on the Super Bowl window in Green Bay.

Adding Bell could help them get the second ring that a player of Rodgers calibre surely deserves. The running game has been an issue for the Packers in recent years and with the knee injury that the quarterback is carrying, Bell carrying a lot of the workload until he is healthy could be the Packers best chance this season.

The big issue in Green Bay is cap space. But the prospect of Bell could be too good of an opportunity to pass up. They would find a way to fit him in.

New York Jets

What better way to help your talented but raw rookie quarterback than by adding one of the best running backs in the league?

Having a quarterback on a rookie deal opens up the opportunity to spend elsewhere and that could go to Bell.

The Jets have two decent backs in Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell but neither is on the level of Bell.

Taking some of the pressure away from Darnold could be good for him. He is still very young and this could help his development.

Oakland Raiders

The team is heading to Las Vegas in the very near future and lacking any real stars to sell the team there.

Marshawn Lynch has been running well but he is at the very end of his career and could well have just this season left in him.

Derek Carr has struggled somewhat and the addition of Bell could help him recapture some of his best form if the whole team isn’t on his shoulders.

The team paid out for the flashy coach in Jon Gruden, why not do the same at running back.

Bell playing with something to prove could really fit this Raiders team in their final games in Oakland.

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NFL Winners and Losers – Week Three: Blake Bortles goes from hero to zero, Matt Patricia shines and a British player makes a name for himself

Who didn’t see that coming? Two teams that were right at the top of the Lack of Power Rankings heading into the week beat two of the favourites for the Super Bowl. Not just beat them, destroyed them.

The NFL is a crazy league and three weeks in, I don’t know how we get through those months without it each year.

Picking a few winners and losers from this week was very hard as there were so many options.

WINNER – Efe Obada

If this story isn’t made into a movie then somebody in Hollywood isn’t doing their job properly.

For those of you that don’t know Obada’s backstory, look it up.

Against all odds he made the Panthers 53 man roster and he made the most of his first game in league.

He intercepted an Andy Dalton pass in the second half before sacking him late in the game to help the Panthers hold on to the win against the Bengals.

If this first game is anything to go by, we will be seeing a lot more of Obada in the next few years.

LOSER – Blake Bortles

Bortles was heralded as a top 10 quarterback by some in week two after leading the Jaguars to a demolition of the Patriots.

This week we saw the Blake that we all know and love.

155 yards on 34 attempts. No touchdowns and a 9-6 loss to the Titans who had a quarterback in with no feeling in his fingers.

Bortles might not be troubling the MVP voters for this season. Maybe 2019 is his year?

WINNER – Josh Allen read more

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NFL Lack of Power Rankings – The race for the number one pick in the 2019 draft

We have a brand new podcast. Check it out here.

This year may see the most hotly contested race for the number one pick in next year’s draft in some time.

There are a number of teams that look more than capable of matching the Browns 0-16 season.

We have run power rankings in the past but everyone does those so here are the Lack of Power rankings (this name may change in the very near future) tracking the worst teams in the league as they race to pick up the next Baker Mayfield or Myles Garrett.

We will be counting down from ten to one each week.

These will not be based on just record, but how likely it is that a team can pick up that top slot that so many teams already seem to be after.

10 – Tennessee Titans

Honestly, it would not surprise me if the Titans are shooting up these rankings in the near future.

The Marcus Mariota injury is more than a little troubling. This feels like more than just a one week thing but we will see. The team is being decimated by injuries already away from the quarterback position.

The division looks to be more competitive than it ever has been so it could be a long season in Tennessee.

9 – Dallas Cowboys

Has a team ever wasted the huge opportunity that having a quarterback on a rookie deal gives you? The team has the room to give Dak Prescott every chance to succeed but he is throwing it to Allen Hurns and Tavon Austin.

The Cowboys had the chance to build a Legion of Boom era Seahawks but they already look to have blown the amazing chance. Maybe a first overall pick can help them get there but they will probably blow that as well.

8 – Houston Texans

One of the teams with the biggest buzz coming into the season. Could they be the team to emerge and challenge the Patriots? Well, no. They could be the team that fires their coach before Thanksgiving.

Off to an 0-2 start and with Deshaun Watson looking a long way short of that electric quarterback we saw last season, the Texans are already in a bit of a hole.

They have the talent to pull themselves out of this and probably more hope than anyone else on the list, but things just are not right in Houston.

7 – Seattle Seahawks

It is hard to believe it was so recently that this team was regarded as the best or at least one of the best teams in the league.

Since then they have lost nearly all of those players that really made them the most feared defence in the league.

Pete Carroll is loved in Seattle but maybe it is edging closer and closer to needing a change at the Seahawks.

6 – Oakland Raiders

At this rate, Oakland will be glad to see the back of this team.

The Jon Gruden contract looked bad enough when they gave it to him but at this rate does he even make it to year three of that ten year contract?

The effort on that final two minutes of the game from Bruce Irvin sums up this team (check it out if you haven’t seen it).

5 – New York Giants read more

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Josh Gordon: Most likely landing spots when he leaves the Cleveland Browns

Josh Gordon will be released by Cleveland Browns today (assuming nobody trades for him first) and there are already a number of teams being linked with the talented but troubles wide receiver.

The Browns stuck by Gordon through a number of issues, most linked to drugs, but with it seemingly being his last chance, he reportedly picked up a hamstring injury on a promotional shoot and that was the final straw for John Dorsey and the Browns.

Here are five of the most likely spots that Gordon will end up.

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas were one of the first teams linked with Gordon after the news emerged but have since ruled themselves out.

I’m not sure I am buying that. The Cowboys have a major lack of talent at the position and Gordon could be signed on a very team-friendly deal. It would be a low risk, high reward move for a team that really needs help there.

They are passing up on a talent like Josh Gordon because they are signing Bryce Butler? Does that seem like Jerry Jones?

Buffalo Bills

Let’s face it, the Bills are in terrible shape. Things are so bad in Buffalo that their players don’t even want to make it to the end of the game before retiring.

Like the Cowboys, there is little talent at the position and that is not good when you have a rookie quarterback. Buffalo will want to give Josh Allen every chance to succeed and adding Gordon could help with that. Add Gordon to Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay and things don’t look quite so bad on that front.

Would it likely end in disaster? Yes. Could it happen? Yes.

New York Jets

Ian Rapoport said that the Jets are frontrunners to sign Gordon and it makes a lot of sense.

Like Terrelle Pryor, it is a low risk move with a big upside. It looks as though the Jets have finally found their franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold and adding to an already decent group of receivers could help speed up his progression in the league.

The thing that makes me a little sceptical is that the Jets already have talented receivers with question marks in Pryor and Robby Anderson but Josh Gordon has more talent than either of those.

This could well be the best landing spot for him.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are really starting to build something. Jimmy Garoppolo looks like he is destined to be a star and the team is really adding some good young players after a few dark years.

What they are missing is a genuinely elite receiver. They have some nice pieces in the likes of Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin but Josh Gordon could help take the passing game to a new level.

Jimmy G throwing to Josh Gordon under Kyle Shanahan? Sign me up.

Nobody

Gordon is an immensely talented receiver but it is getting to that time where we have to face up to the fact he may never play again.

He has had so many chances in Cleveland and he just can’t stay on the field.

It may end up being the best course of action for Gordon to leave the spotlight of the NFL and sort whatever issues he has.

It would be a shame to lose such a talent but at this stage it is a real possibility.

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